Universities tracking catastrophic climate thresholds find that solar power, electric vehicles, and battery storage have crossed into self-sustaining growth, while warning that coral reefs face widespread loss without a reversal in temperature.
The second Global Tipping Points Report from the University of Exeter identifies both Earth system tipping points approaching catastrophic thresholds and positive tipping points that have already been crossed in green technologies. Warm-water coral reefs, which support nearly a billion people, are passing their thermal tipping point with current global warming at about 1.4°C. The Amazon rainforest faces widespread dieback due to climate change and deforestation, with the lower end of the estimated range now at 1.5°C, whilst the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could collapse below 2°C, disrupting global food security.
The research by 160 scientists at 87 institutions in 23 countries finds positive tipping points already crossed in solar photovoltaic systems, wind power and electric vehicle adoption in leading markets. Battery storage and heat pump technologies have reached a point of self-propelling growth, making polluting alternatives economically unviable.
Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said radical global acceleration has occurred in solar power and electric vehicle uptake over the past two years, but emphasised the need to move faster to seize positive tipping point opportunities and tip the world towards a sustainable future.
The research identifies Brazil as holding potential to trigger positive tipping points in green steel, green hydrogen and green ammonia production. The report argues for coordinated policy action at “super-leverage points” where intervention across interconnected sectors such as power, transport and heating can accelerate tipping cascades.
Goods transport approaches its own positive tipping point, whilst ecosystem restoration can flip degraded systems back to health when consumption patterns shift towards sustainability. The COP30 Presidency has launched a Global Mutirão to encourage worldwide climate action ahead of the summit.
The report notes that current policies fail to address the abrupt and irreversible nature of Earth system tipping points, requiring both governance innovation and institutional reform.
