The worsening impacts of the climate crisis risk creating a vicious cycle that could fatally “derail” efforts to tackle the problem itself, a new report warns. As global warming surpasses 1.5°C and tipping points like coral reef dieback are reached, escalating climate consequences could overwhelm humanity’s capacity to focus on decarbonisation.
The report, by the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), University of Exeter, University College London’s Climate Action Unit, and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), argues this “derailment risk” is dangerously overlooked. It is the result of a two-year project involving hundreds of global experts.
Lead author Laurie Laybourn, from SCRI and Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, compared the situation to navigating a deadly storm. “Until now, the job has been to persuade the crew that the storm is coming, to change course,” he said. “We have taken some climate action… but now we are entering the figurative and literal ‘storm’ of 1.5°C overshoot.”
Chaotic results of climate impacts
In this “storm,” Laybourn explained, worsening climate impacts and their chaotic results pull attention in multiple directions. “These could distract us from rapid decarbonisation, keeping us on a trajectory to global disaster,” he warned. “So, we need a strategy to get focused, stay focused, and navigate to safety.”
The common assumption that our ability to act will only increase is flawed, Laybourn argued, suggesting humanity could become “too distracted by climate chaos to focus fully on climate action”. He likened derailment to “sailors becoming overwhelmed by a storm and so losing their ability to navigate, or even stay afloat”.
The report uses the 2024 Valencia floods as a stark example. After catastrophic rainfall killed over 200 people, the populist Vox party, which opposes climate action, exploited public anger by falsely blaming the disaster on “climate fanaticism” and environmental regulations, gaining support despite opposing policies that would increase future resilience. This creates a dangerous feedback loop: slowed climate action leads to worse disasters, fueling more counterproductive politics.
However, the report also identifies “reinforcement opportunities,” where climate consequences spur positive action. Laybourn cited energy-efficient “passive house” designs that survived wildfires, demonstrating how reducing emissions can simultaneously build resilience. “That approach needs to be writ large across society,” he urged.
To navigate the 1.5°C overshoot era and avoid derailment, the report outlines five essential capabilities:
- Situational awareness: Improving risk assessment beyond persistent underestimation.
- Stories: Developing narratives that emphasise resilience and focus amidst brutal realities.
- Resilience: Moving beyond incremental infrastructure adaptation towards transforming societal systems, such as tackling poverty to boost social cohesion.
- Speed: Rapidly cutting emissions while simultaneously adapting to unavoidable impacts, aligning goals through actions like nature restoration.
- Governance: Modifying decision-making systems to ensure adaptation supports accelerated decarbonisation, requiring more candid political communication.
Dr James Dyke, Assistant Director of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, stressed the growing danger. “The prevailing assumption is that the world has closed off pathways above 3°C warming – but in fact we could be derailed by vicious cycles,” he said. “Catastrophic environmental change is still very much on the table.” He emphasised the need to greatly accelerate the fossil fuel phase-out alongside adaptation efforts.
The researchers stress that tackling derailment requires action
