A new study outlines a plan to repurpose China’s retiring coal plants into nuclear reactors, a move that could save trillions in costs and supply more than a fifth of the nation’s electricity by 2060.
China could significantly accelerate its transition to net-zero emissions by converting retired coal-fired power plants into nuclear facilities, according to new research from Tsinghua University published in the journal Engineering.
The study, led by Daiwei Li and Xiliang Zhang, evaluates the feasibility of “coal-to-nuclear” (C2N) conversion – a process where ageing coal infrastructure is repowered using nuclear technology, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs).
According to the researchers, this strategy would not only prevent the economic shock of “asset stranding” – where valuable infrastructure is abandoned before its time – but also solve the critical issue of grid stability as renewable energy expands.
The 22 per cent solution
The research team developed a high-resolution model of China’s power system to assess the impact of this conversion.
They found that, under China’s aggressive carbon-neutrality goals, the country is already on track to reach 422 gigawatts (GW) of installed nuclear capacity by 2060, accounting for 18 per cent of total electricity supply.
However, embracing the C2N model would unlock substantial additional growth.
“Scenario analysis results demonstrate that C2N conversion will unlock additional nuclear growth in China: repowering eligible retired coal power plants will expand nuclear sites and increase nuclear power capacity by 13%–23%,” the study reports.
This additional capacity would push nuclear power’s share of China’s total electricity mix to as high as 22 per cent by 2060.
Economic and regional benefits
Beyond the environmental benefits, the financial argument for swapping coal for nuclear is compelling.
The researchers estimate that between 2030 and 2060, implementing C2N development scenarios would deliver cumulative cost savings of 0.44 to 1.39 trillion CNY (approximately 0.22 per cent to 0.69 per cent of total system costs) compared to a scenario without conversion.
These savings stem from leveraging existing sites and facilities – reducing the massive capital investment usually required for new nuclear plants – and from operational efficiency gains from replacing expensive fossil fuels with flexible SMRs.
Crucially, the strategy would also reshape the geography of China’s energy production.
Currently, nuclear power in China is largely concentrated along the coast. The C2N approach would facilitate the deployment of SMRs in northwestern provinces, which have a large legacy of coal power but few coastal resources.
“While supplemental to conventional greenfield nuclear sites, C2N enables nuclear power to be deployed across 28 provincial regions by 2060,” the researchers noted.
Policy recommendations
To make this transition a reality, the study authors offer several recommendations for policymakers.
They urge the government to prioritise protecting greenfield nuclear sites and to promote C2N pilot projects with supportive policies.
The authors call for expanding manufacturing capacity for key nuclear components and increasing support for research and development of advanced nuclear technology to lower costs and enhance flexibility.
“By allowing for C2N conversion with diverse nuclear technologies, China and other countries facing similar coal transition challenges can mitigate asset stranding risks associated with traditional fossil fuel infrastructure while building a more cost-effective and low-carbon energy system,” the study concluded.
