The United States would “actively harm” its own national security and fracture the NATO alliance if it attempted to purchase or annex Greenland, a leading political scientist warned as world leaders met in Davos this week.
As the administration of President Donald Trump reasserts its interest in acquiring the autonomous territory — most recently citing it as decisive for a proposed “Golden Dome” missile defence system — a new analysis suggests the move would leave Washington weaker, not stronger.
Gabriella Gricius, an expert on Arctic security policy at the University of Konstanz, argues that the US already possesses everything it needs from the island through existing trilateral agreements with Denmark and Greenland.
“The United States already has access to everything it needs from Greenland to defend itself, in particular, the US military base in Greenland: the Pituffik Space Base,” Gricius said, referring to the site previously known as Thule Air Base.
“By purchasing Greenland or taking it over via illegal military means, the US would actively harm its own national security, the security of NATO and the overall security of the international, democratic, rules-based order.”
‘Golden Dome’ justification
President Trump renewed speculation about the territory on 14 January 2026, emphasising that acquiring the island would be crucial for the “Golden Dome”, a proposed defence shield intended to intercept missiles launched from space.
Greenland’s location is strategically vital. It sits atop the “GIUK Gap” (Greenland-Iceland-UK), a naval chokepoint that Russian submarines must pass through to enter the North Atlantic. Furthermore, the US is currently 100 per cent dependent on imports for 12 critical minerals, many of which Greenland possesses in abundance.
However, Gricius warned that an aggressive move to acquire the territory would alienate European allies at a time when Nordic cooperation is essential to counter Russian and Chinese influence.
“Without the support of NATO and current European allies, the United States would be in a much weaker position on the world stage,” she noted.
Greenland says ‘No’
The analysis also highlights that the people of Greenland have explicitly rejected the idea. In a January 2025 vote, 85 per cent of the population voted against joining the United States, despite 84 per cent supporting eventual independence from Denmark.
“Instead of threatening Greenland or offering to buy it, the US administration would be better advised to expand its diplomatic relations… and invest in long-term partnerships,” Gricius advised.
According to the report, the focus on territorial acquisition distracts from the immediate danger in the Arctic: hybrid warfare.
Gricius argues that while the risk of direct military conflict remains low, the region faces rising threats from drone activity, disinformation campaigns, and the sabotage of critical infrastructure such as underwater cables and pipelines.
She urged the US to look to the “Nordic model” of security cooperation, flexible, modular collaboration among Baltic and North Atlantic states, rather than pursuing 19th-century-style territorial expansion.
