US retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent over 2024 to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for the first time, with online shopping continuing to dominate as the top holiday shopping destination at 55 per cent of purchases, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast.
Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, the second-highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history and falling only 1.3 per cent less than last year’s record of $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Out of the total per-person spending, $627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends, whilst the remaining $262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.
Online top destination
Online continues to be the top holiday shopping destination, with 55 per cent planning to make purchases digitally. That is followed by grocery stores at 46 per cent, department stores at 44 per cent and discount stores at 42 per cent.
“Time and again, Americans prioritise spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”
Early shopping remains popular, with 42 per cent of shoppers planning to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November. The leading reasons they shop early are to spread out their budget at 54 per cent or to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping at 41 per cent.
Tariffs remain top of mind for most holiday shoppers, with 85 per cent anticipating higher prices because of tariffs. Nearly two-thirds at 63 per cent plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59 per cent last year.
The forecast is based on economic modelling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases.
